The Constituency
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Senate · Montana
NEILL, REILLY vs. DAINES, STEVE (Incumbent)
90%Republican favored
Likely
State need48 / 100
State delivery56 / 100
State lean (Dem 2-way, 2022+2024)40%
Expected Dem share, 202640%
Leading Candidates
The two major-party nominees, real FEC receipts, current 2026 cycle. Third-party and primary-challenger filings aren't listed here — see the note in this project's methodology on why that data isn't reliably scoped to this specific race.
NEILL, REILLY (Democratic)$306,625 raised
DAINES, STEVE (Republican)Incumbent$4,779,230 raised
Forecast as of November 1, 2026.
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