The Constituency
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Senate · Iowa · Open Seat
TUREK, JOSHUA vs. ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON
63%Republican favored
Lean
State need24 / 100
State delivery38 / 100
State lean (Dem 2-way, 2022+2024)44%
Expected Dem share, 202648%
Latest Polls
Public polls of this race, entered from each pollster's own release. Shown for reference. They are not an input to the forecast above, which is built from state partisan lean, incumbency, fundraising and the national generic ballot (expected Dem share 48%, two-way).
New York Times/SienaSep 21 – Oct 1, 2026 LV
Josh Turek (D) 47% · Ashley Hinson (R) 48%R +1 · Dem two-way 49.5%
Leading Candidates
The two major-party nominees, real FEC receipts, current 2026 cycle. Third-party and primary-challenger filings aren't listed here — see the note in this project's methodology on why that data isn't reliably scoped to this specific race.
TUREK, JOSHUA (Democratic)$24,290,521 raised
ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON (Republican)$14,147,973 raised
Forecast as of November 1, 2026.
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