The Constituency
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Senate · Alaska
PELTOLA, MARY vs. SULLIVAN, DAN (Incumbent)
65%Democratic favored
Lean
State need50 / 100
State delivery94 / 100
State lean (Dem 2-way, 2022+2024)50%
Expected Dem share, 202653%
Latest Polls
Public polls of this race, entered from each pollster's own release. Shown for reference. They are not an input to the forecast above, which is built from state partisan lean, incumbency, fundraising and the national generic ballot (expected Dem share 53%, two-way).
New York Times/SienaSep 21 – Oct 1, 2026 LV
Mary Peltola (D) 50% · Dan Sullivan (R) 43%D +7 · Dem two-way 53.8%
Leading Candidates
The two major-party nominees, real FEC receipts, current 2026 cycle. Third-party and primary-challenger filings aren't listed here — see the note in this project's methodology on why that data isn't reliably scoped to this specific race.
PELTOLA, MARY (Democratic)$36,887,509 raised
SULLIVAN, DAN (Republican)Incumbent$11,508,274 raised
Forecast as of November 1, 2026.
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