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RZ
Zinke, Ryan K.
Party: RDistrict: MT-01U.S. House of Representatives
Not Seeking Re-Election
Zinke announced March 2 2026 he would not seek re-election; endorsed Aaron Flint to succeed him.
Announced March 2, 2026. Source.
Declared Candidates for This Seat
Forstag, Samuel Kelley · Democratic Party$4,312,110
Flint, Aaron · Republican Party$2,856,139
Busse, Ryan · Democratic Party$790,340
Jacobsen, Christi · Republican Party$552,743
Cleveland, Russell Tyler · Democratic Party$457,635
Olszewski, Albert · Republican Party$426,973
Rains, Matthew · Democratic Party$272,761
Tranel, Monica · Democratic Party$36,193
Moran, Cory · Republican Party$0
Hayes, Dennis · Libertarian Party$0
Accountability Grade
Zinke announced March 2 2026 he would not seek re-election; endorsed Aaron Flint to succeed him.
District Need
Descriptive context — not included in the accountability grade.
Overall need, vs. every other district
45th percentile
We combine 7 signs of hardship — poverty, low income, no health insurance, unemployment, food-assistance (SNAP) use, high rent costs, and high mortgage costs — into one 0–100 score. Higher means more need. This district has more need than 45% of every other district in the country.
What goes into the Need score
Poverty rate
12.0%
Median household income
$70,599
Uninsured rate
8.9%
Unemployment rate
3.7%
Households receiving SNAP
8.0%
Renters paying 30%+ of income on rent
47.9%
Mortgaged owners paying 30%+ of income on housing
31.4%
Other district context, not scored
Bachelor's degree or higher
38.0%
Medicare coverage
21.0%
Medicaid coverage
20.2%
Disability rate
13.9%
National context: ACA marketplace premiums are rising 18% (median), 20% on average for 2026 nationwide — not specific to this district. Source: Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker (as of 2026-01-15).
Legislative Effectiveness
118th Congress, Center for Effective Lawmaking — descriptive context, not included in the accountability grade.
Below Average
Percentile among House members
42nd percentile
Bill activity, 118th Congress
15Introduced
7Got Committee Action
0Passed House
0Enacted
Each figure counts independently — not a step-by-step funnel. A bill can count as “Passed House” by having its provisions folded into another bill, without ever getting its own committee vote.
Bill Activity
119th Congress, live from Congress.gov — our own raw counts, not the Legislative Effectiveness score above.
15Introduced
2Got Committee Action
1Passed House
0Enacted
Each figure includes every bill that reached at least that milestone, so the numbers step down left to right. A bare committee or subcommittee referral doesn’t count as “Got Committee Action” — only real engagement (a hearing, markup, or vote to report) does.
These counts include every bill and resolution the member sponsored. The Legislative Activity part of the grade uses only real legislation — ceremonial resolutions, post office namings, and the like are left out — so the two won’t always line up.
Vote Attendance
119th Congress — descriptive context, not included in the accountability grade.
97%votes cast
Missed 20 of 676 roll-call votes held this Congress. This counts every missed vote the same way — it doesn't know whether the reason was illness, family leave, campaigning for another office, or anything else, so a low number here isn't a claim about why.
Community Profile
Descriptive context — not included in the accountability grade.
Veterans (population 18+)
8.9%
Limited English-speaking households
0.4%
Broadband internet access
89.2%
White alone
85.6%
Hispanic or Latino
4.3%
Black or African American alone
0.4%
Asian alone
1.0%
Two or more races
4.3%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone
4.0%
Some other race alone
0.4%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone
0.0%
How This District Compares
Each dot is one district — 435 total. The larger dot is this one.
Median household income$70,599
$43,811U.S. overall $78,538$176,832
Poverty rate12.0%
4.7%U.S. overall 12.4%30.0%
Accountability Index Need score45/100
6/10092/100
Combines 7 signs of hardship — poverty, low income, no health insurance, unemployment, food-assistance (SNAP) use, high rent costs, and high mortgage costs — into one 0–100 score. Higher means more need, compared to every other district — descriptive context, not included in the accountability grade. Full methodology below.
How These Scores Are Calculated
Plain-language version — no jargon, no formulas.
Delivery

First we rank every district by need — the same 7-factor score (poverty, low income, no health insurance, unemployment, food assistance, high rent costs, and high mortgage costs) shown in the District Need card. Then we rank every district by how much federal contract and grant money it actually receives per person. Delivery looks at the gap between those two rankings: is this district's funding rank higher or lower than its need rank? A high-need district with a low funding rank has a big gap — money isn't reaching where it's needed most. Because rural and urban areas receive federal money very differently (one big highway grant looks huge per person in a small rural district, tiny in a large city), we never compare that gap nationally — only against other districts with similar population density, rural vs. rural, city vs. city. The score is where a district's gap ranks among those similar-density peers: 100 means it's getting the most funding relative to its need among districts like it, 0 means the least. A known limitation: because the gap starts from need, the highest-need districts have to be among the best-funded just to score in the middle, so Delivery scores, and overall grades, run lower in high-need districts. In our own check, 21% of House members from the highest-need fifth of districts get an F, compared with 1% from the lowest-need fifth. Because high-need districts are disproportionately Black, 6 of the 8 members representing majority-Black districts get a D or F. Federal contract and grant money also tends to follow existing institutions (contractors, universities, large hospitals) that a member can't create on their own. We publish the score as built and flag this here; how Delivery accounts for need may change in a future revision.

Donor Capture

Two questions, averaged together. First: what share of a member's campaign money comes from individual people rather than PACs? Second: of the individual donations we can trace to an address, what share comes from the member's own state — the people they actually represent? That second number isn't compared raw: a member from a big, wealthy state like California naturally raises more at home than one from Wyoming, and members in close races attract money from across the country because their seats are targeted. So we compare each member's home-state share with what's typical for a member from a similar-sized donor state in a similarly competitive seat, and score how far above or below that they land. We used to score small-dollar donations instead, but that mostly rewarded national fame — the highest scorers were members with big national followings, most of whom raise the large majority of their money outside their own state. Party leaders are scored on the first question only, since raising money nationally is part of their job.

Legislative Activity

We look at every bill a member has sponsored this Congress, straight from Congress.gov, and keep only real legislation — ceremonial resolutions, post office namings, gold medals, and "National ___ Day" designations are left out. The score has two halves. The first is how many real bills a member introduced, compared with everyone in their chamber — anyone can write and introduce a bill. The second is how far those bills got — real committee action (a hearing or markup, not just a referral), passing their chamber, becoming law — but compared only with members of their own party, because whichever party holds the majority controls which bills advance. Comparing across parties there would mostly measure who's in the majority, not who's working. The Speaker and each party's floor leader and whip aren't scored on this: they run the chamber, and by long-standing practice bills carry other members' names.

How the three combine into one grade

We rank every member nationally on each of the three scores above, then average those three rankings together for one composite score (two, for the party leaders noted above). Members are then graded on a curve: the top 10% get an A, the next 25% get a B, the middle 30% get a C, the next 25% get a D, and the bottom 10% get an F.

This letter grade is not a judgment of a member's character or overall job performance — it measures three specific, factual things: whether federal funding reaches their district relative to its need, whether their campaign money comes from individuals in their own state, and how much real legislation they're moving. A member can score low here while doing plenty well outside what's measured, and score high here while their supporters and critics still disagree sharply about them.

What's not in the grade

District Need is a single 0 to 100 score: we combine 7 signs of hardship — poverty, low income, no health insurance, unemployment, food-assistance (SNAP) use, high rent costs, and high mortgage costs — ranking each one against every other district nationally and averaging those rankings. A higher score means more combined economic hardship than most other districts — it's relative to peers, not a raw severity scale. It's the yardstick Delivery is measured against above (does funding match need?), but it never scores the member directly or pushes their grade up or down on its own. Voting Alignment (shown above, next to the composite score) measures the gap between a member's ideology rank, based on their real voting record, and their district or state's own partisan-lean rank. It used to be part of the composite, but a small gap doesn't necessarily mean good representation — it can just mean a landslide seat — and a large gap doesn't necessarily mean bad representation — it can mean a swing-district member voting independently of local political pressure. Because the score itself can't tell those cases apart, it's shown as a fact about the member, not folded into a value judgment. Legislative Effectiveness Score data (bills introduced vs. enacted, from the Center for Effective Lawmaking at thelawmakers.org, covering both the House and Senate) is shown for context but not scored: the most recent published scores cover the 118th Congress, so they describe the previous Congress, not this one — the grade's own Legislative Activity component uses current-Congress bills instead, and never borrows that peer-reviewed name. The Bill Activity card's raw counts (every bill and resolution a member sponsored this Congress, pulled directly from Congress.gov) are shown as-is; the filtered, weighted version described above is what actually counts toward the grade. Vote Attendance (missed roll-call votes this Congress, House and Senate) is shown too, but not part of the grade for a different reason than Voting Alignment above: the direction here isn't ambiguous — showing up is part of the job — but the record can't distinguish a member who simply didn't show up from one on medical leave or running a campaign for another office, and we'd rather show the real number than guess at which explanation applies to whom.

How the 2026 forecasts work

Every race starts from how that district or state has actually voted in recent elections — its baseline partisan lean. We shift that baseline three ways: a small, measurable bonus for whoever already holds the seat (incumbents really do outperform the baseline, and we adjust the bonus for open seats where nobody is running as the incumbent); a shift toward whichever party is doing better nationally right now, based on generic-ballot polling; and, for Senate races, a smaller adjustment for differences in candidate fundraising. Add those up and you get one party's expected share of the two-party vote, which converts directly into a win probability and a rating label (Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss-up).

The seat-count ranges shown for the full House and Senate aren't just those probabilities added up. National mood doesn't move district by district independently — when it shifts, it tends to shift in the same direction almost everywhere at once. We simulate that shared shift 10,000 times to get a realistic range, instead of a falsely narrow one.

None of this uses our own Accountability Index grade, and it isn't a guess — the model is backtested against what actually happened in 2018, 2020, and 2024 before being trusted on 2026, and it correctly called each of those elections' outcomes over 90% of the time.

How the plain-English summary is written

Each member page includes a short paragraph explaining their grade in plain English. It's generated once per member (not created live when you load the page) by an AI model grounded in real data — one real, recent vote and the bill's own official summary from the Congressional Research Service, the district's real Census numbers, and the member's real campaign-finance totals — rather than asked to interpret a bare score on its own. It states what happened (how the member voted, what the bill actually does, where the campaign money came from) and is deliberately instructed never to characterize whether a vote was good or bad for the district; that judgment is left to the reader.

Donor Composition
Where campaign funds came from, in real dollars — not an industry breakdown.
Donor data not available for this member.
Top Donors
Named contributors this cycle, from public FEC records — not linked to any specific vote below.
Donor-name data not available for this member.
2026 Race Forecast
Modeled win probability, updated periodically.
22%win probability
Lean
Recent Roll-Call Votes
Most recent floor votes cast, listed plainly with no editorial framing. Click a bill to see what it actually does.
S. 2403 — Retire through Ownership ActLabor and Employment · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedRetire through Ownership Act This bill allows the fiduciary of an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) to rely on a valuation provided by an independent valuati...
Yea
H.R. 9497 — Water Resources Development Act of 2026Water Resources Development · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedWater Resources Development Act of 2026 This bill authorizes and modifies certain water resource infrastructure projects and programs of the U.S.
Yea
H.R. 9340 — Ratepayer Protection ActEnergy · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedRatepayer Protection Act The bill requires state utility regulators and nonregulated utilities to consider implementing a standard to hold certain large-load cu...
Yea
H.J.Res. 213 — Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule issued by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to the "California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Commercial Harbor Craft Regulations; Notice of Decision".Environmental Protection · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedThis joint resolution revokes the partial authorization granted to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to amend its Commercial Harbor Craft regulation.
Yea
H.R. 10326 — PROOF ActGovernment Operations and Politics · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedPreventing Rip-offs and Obtaining Oversight of Funds Act or the PROOF Act This bill requires states to provide such information as the Department of Justice (DO...
Yea
H.R. 9576 — National Fraud Enforcement Division Act of 2026Crime and Law Enforcement · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedNational Fraud Enforcement Division Act of 2026 This bill provides statutory authority for the National Fraud Enforcement Division within the Department of Just...
Yea
H.R. 5334 — Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026International Affairs · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedSupporting Early-childhood Educators' Deductions Act of 2025 or the SEED Act of 2025 This bill expands eligibility for the above-the-line federal tax deduction...
Yea
H.Con.Res. 93 — Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran.International Affairs · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedThis concurrent resolution directs the President to remove U.S.
Nay
H.J.Res. 210 — Providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency relating to "California State Nonroad Engine Pollution Control Standards; Ocean-Going Vessels At-Berth; Notice of Decision".Environmental Protection · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedThis joint resolution revokes the authorization granted to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to amend its Ocean-Going Vessels At-Berth Regulation.
Yea
H.R. 9500 — Tax Relief for Fraud Victims ActTaxation · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedTax Relief for Fraud Victims Act This bill expands the federal tax deduction for personal casualty and theft losses by eliminating certain limits, including the...
Yea
H.R. 2140 — Diesel Emissions Reduction Act of 2025Environmental Protection · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedDiesel Emissions Reduction Act of 2025 This bill reauthorizes through FY2029 a diesel emissions reduction program under which the Environmental Protection Agenc...
Yea
H.R. 4646 — Whistleblower Protection Act of 2025Housing and Community Development · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedWhistleblower Protection Act of 2025 This bill expands existing whistleblower protections for employees of federal contractors or grant recipients to apply to a...
Yea
H.R. 8278 — Fostering the Use of Technology to Uphold Regulatory Effectiveness in Supervision ActFinance and Financial Sector · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedFostering the Use of Technology to Uphold Regulatory Effectiveness in Supervision Act This bill requires specified federal financial agencies to assess their te...
Yea
H.R. 2978 — GUARD ActCrime and Law Enforcement · Sep 16, 2026 · PassedGuarding Unprotected Aging Retirees from Deception Act of 2026 or the GUARD Act of 2026 This bill allows state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies and g...
Yea
H.Res. 1486 — Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors.Government Operations and Politics · Sep 15, 2026 · PassedThis resolution impeaches President Donald Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors.
Yea
H.R. 3276 — Local Communities & Bird Habitat Stewardship Act of 2026Environmental Protection · Sep 14, 2026 · PassedLocal Communities & Bird Habitat Stewardship Act of 2026 This bill provides statutory authority for the Urban Bird Treaty Program, which is administered by the...
Yea
H.R. 4219 — National Wildlife Refuge System Invasive Species Strike Team Act of 2025Public Lands and Natural Resources · Sep 14, 2026 · PassedNational Wildlife Refuge System Invasive Species Strike Team Act of 2025 This bill provides statutory authority for the Invasive Species Strike Team program car...
Yea
H.R. 4795 — Protect Economic and Academic Freedom Act of 2026Education · Sep 3, 2026 · PassedProtect Economic and Academic Freedom Act of 2026 This bill prohibits institutions of higher education (IHEs) that participate in federal student aid programs f...
Yea
H.R. 1501 — Protecting Domestic Mining Act of 2025Energy · Sep 2, 2026 · PassedProtecting Domestic Mining Act of 2025 This bill provides statutory authority for federal agencies to expedite the environmental review of certain mining infras...
Yea
Data as of November 1, 2026. The Constituency — Constituent Accountability Index. Nonpartisan, data-driven. See full methodology →
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